The Global Food Crisis of 2023: Climate Change, El Niño, and War
A Perfect Storm for Soaring Food Prices
Households worldwide are grappling with a dire question: How to prepare meals when staple ingredients have become unattainable luxuries? This alarming reality is the aftermath of the collision of three global events: the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the unpredictable effects of El Niño, and the ever-looming threat of climate change. Together, these factors are driving countries to limit exports of essential foods — with rice, cooking oil, and onions being the hardest hit.
The Kenyan Onion Crisis: A Microcosm of a Larger Problem
In Nairobi, Kenya, the ramifications are felt acutely. For Caroline Kyalo, a 28-year-old salon worker, the skyrocketing prices of onions forced her to make heartbreaking decisions about feeding her family. While Kenya boasts fertile lands and an ample workforce, a lethal combination of transportation costs, debilitating drought, and a preference for more durable Tanzanian onions has resulted in skyrocketing prices. With these ingredients at a premium, families like Kyalo’s have had to compromise on meals and ration their resources.
Export Restrictions: A Global “Contagion”
What we’re witnessing in Kenya is emblematic of a broader trend. Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, notes a concerning “contagion” of food restrictions. This year alone has seen a staggering 41 food export restrictions imposed by 19 countries.
India, for instance, has halted shipments of certain rice varieties and onions. Erratic rainfall patterns, exacerbated by climate change, have impaired crops, sending ripple effects throughout the region. Neighboring countries like Bangladesh have seen onion prices surge, with authorities frantically searching for alternative sources.
Even Europe hasn’t been spared. Spain’s olive oil production was devastated by drought, causing a surge in prices in Turkey as demand shifted. Morocco, grappling with drought and the aftermath of a significant earthquake, has halted exports of various essential foods.
Why 2023 Stands Out
While fluctuations in food prices aren’t unprecedented — prices of rice and wheat doubled back in 2007-2008 — 2023 poses unique challenges. The global safety net of food stocks that countries relied on in previous crises has diminished, and with climate change in the mix, food supplies are more volatile than ever.
According to Glauber, this increased volatility is the “new normal.” Global food prices will now hinge on unpredictable elements: the evolving patterns of El Niño, weather disruptions affecting crops, and geopolitical tensions in regions like Ukraine.
Climate Change: The Omnipresent Threat
The perils of climate change transcend boundaries. Its impact is not just confined to staple grains but affects every crop and livestock that requires consistent rainfall. Elyssa Kaur Ludher, a researcher at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, warns that livestock and even fruit trees will face extreme heat stress, increasing the chances of food spoilage.
The conflict in Ukraine, especially Russia’s move to withdraw from an agreement ensuring safe transport of Ukrainian grain, complicates matters. With primary transportation channels blocked, the world faces potential shortages in feed for livestock and essential fertilizers.
The Road Ahead
As 2023 unfolds, the global community must brace for more unpredictability in food prices and supplies. The challenges posed by climate change, coupled with geopolitical tensions and changing weather patterns, are a clarion call. It underscores the need for international cooperation, sustainable agricultural practices, and innovative solutions to ensure food security for all.
In the words of Ludher, “The implications of this crisis are not just economic. They are fundamentally human.” It’s a reminder that behind every soaring price tag is a family, a face, a story — and a collective responsibility to act.
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